Tennis · UTR Pro Knoxville Women · 29/10, 20:00
Prediction: Ava Esposito Cogan vs Lisa Kamigata
Team pages: Ava Esposito Cogan · Lisa Kamigata
Prediction summary
Winner
Ava Esposito Cogan
Lisa Kamigata
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ava Esposito Cogan
6-4 (W-L)
Lisa Kamigata
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ava Esposito Cogan 1582 · Lisa Kamigata 1496
| Ava Esposito Cogan | Lisa Kamigata | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ava Esposito Cogan (rating 1582 vs 1496).
- Ava Esposito Cogan dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 47.2% break avg.
- Ava Esposito Cogan is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Ava Esposito Cogan makes many double faults (8.5/match).
Statistics
| Ava Esposito Cogan | Lisa Kamigata | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-9.8 | 11.4-9.6 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 8.5 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 62.2% |
| Break % | 47.2% | 57.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ava Esposito Cogan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Gabia Paskauskas UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/10 | Alyson Shannon UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Kaya Moe UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Lexie Weir UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Allison Isaacs UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 12/08 | Mariana Manyoma UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/08 | Sabritt Dozier UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 08/08 | Ekaterina Khayrutdinova UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/08 | Lexie Weir UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/08 | Brooke Lynn Schafer UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Lisa Kamigata
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Alyson Shannon UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 27/10 | Gabia Paskauskas UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-7 | W |
| 12/09 | Saray Yli-Piipari UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Alice Soulie UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 09/09 | Stefani Webb UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/09 | Julia Zhu UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Chiara Di Genova UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/05 | Shiho Tsujioka W15 Toyama · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Minami Suzuki W15 Toyama · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/05 | Sun Min Ha W15 Toyama · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ava Esposito Cogan vs Lisa Kamigata?
Our model gives 62% to Ava Esposito Cogan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.