Tennis · UTR Pro Knoxville Women · 29/10, 20:30
Prediction: Francesca Mattioli vs Kaya Moe
Team pages: Francesca Mattioli · Kaya Moe
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Mattioli
Kaya Moe
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Mattioli
5-5 (W-L)
Kaya Moe
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Mattioli 1499 · Kaya Moe 1593
| Francesca Mattioli | Kaya Moe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaya Moe (rating 1499 vs 1593).
- Kaya Moe is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Francesca Mattioli makes many double faults (7.7/match).
- Note: Kaya Moe makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Francesca Mattioli | Kaya Moe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-13.9 | 13.1-9 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 7.7 | 6.3 |
| 1st serve % | 60.6% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 54.6% | 42.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Mattioli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Saray Yli-Piipari UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/10 | Kaede Usui UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 09/10 | Edda Mamedova W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 08/10 | Victoria Bosio W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/10 | Duru Soke W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 06/10 | Anita Sahdiieva W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Rose Marie Nijkamp W15 Nashville |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 30/09 | Eva Maria Ionescu W15 Nashville |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 11/09 | Riley Crowder UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/09 | Joanna Kennedy UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Kaya Moe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Kaede Usui UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/10 | Saray Yli-Piipari UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Ava Esposito Cogan UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Amina Salibayeva UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Audrey Aulia UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/08 | Ariana Gilbert UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 11/08 | Isabella Camacho UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/08 | Brooke Lynn Schafer UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/08 | Natalie Outcalt UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Gabby Barrera UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Mattioli vs Kaya Moe?
Our model gives 52% to Francesca Mattioli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.