Prediction: Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov
Team pages: Taylor Fritz · Denis Shapovalov
Prediction summary
Winner
Taylor Fritz
Denis Shapovalov
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Taylor Fritz
8-2 (W-L)
Denis Shapovalov
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Taylor Fritz
5–5
Denis Shapovalov
(10 last)
- 24 Mar2-0 13-8W
- 07 Feb1-2 15-15L
- 26 Mar2-0 12-8W
- 02 Mar2-0 12-8W
- 26 Oct1-2 10-16L
- 08 Oct2-1 18-13W
- 16 Dec0-2 3-12L
- 30 Sept0-2 8-13L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taylor Fritz 1523 · Denis Shapovalov 1589
| Taylor Fritz | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denis Shapovalov (rating 1523 vs 1589).
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 10.9 aces and 52.9% break avg.
- Denis Shapovalov is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Taylor Fritz | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-13.6 | 15.8-12.2 |
| Aces | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 5.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.1% | 78.8% |
| Break % | 30.5% | 52.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +2.1
Over 23.5: 64% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 36% · 1.80
H2H · Taylor Fritz 5 – 5 Denis Shapovalov (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Taylor Fritz 5–5 Denis Shapovalov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/25 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/02/25 ATP Dallas | 1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 26/03/23 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/03/23 ATP Acapulco | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/10/22 ATP Vienna | 1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 08/10/22 ATP Tokyo | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 16/12/21 Mubadala World Tennis Championship | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/09/21 ATP San Diego | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taylor Fritz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 26/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 20-23 | L |
| 05/09 | Francisco Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Remy Bertola ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/10 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 27/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model gives 57% to Taylor Fritz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.