Prediction: Novak Djokovic vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Team pages: Novak Djokovic · Jan-Lennard Struff
Prediction summary
Winner
Novak Djokovic
Jan-Lennard Struff
Estimated games
26Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Novak Djokovic
4-6 (W-L)
Jan-Lennard Struff
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Novak Djokovic
8–0
Jan-Lennard Struff
(8 last)
- 01 Sept3-0 18-8W
- 27 Nov2-0 12-6W
- 26 Jul2-0 12-7W
- 05 Sept3-0 18-7W
- 26 Aug2-0 12-4W
- 20 Jan3-1 21-15W
- 03 Jun3-0 18-7W
- 02 Jan2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Novak Djokovic 1529 · Jan-Lennard Struff 1571
| Novak Djokovic | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jan-Lennard Struff (rating 1529 vs 1571).
- Jan-Lennard Struff dominates on serve: 10.2 aces and 41.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Novak Djokovic 8–0 Jan-Lennard Struff (8).
Statistics
| Novak Djokovic | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.6 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.8-16.8 | 12.7-10.8 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 10.2 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 79.8% |
| Break % | 29.5% | 41.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.5
Over 22.5: 73% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 27% · 1.83
H2H · Novak Djokovic 8 – 0 Jan-Lennard Struff (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Novak Djokovic 8–0 Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/25 US Open | 3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 27/11/21 Davis Cup | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07/21 Olympics 2020 - Men | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/09/20 US Open | 3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 26/08/20 ATP New York | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/01/20 Australian Open | 3-1 | 21-15 | W |
| 03/06/19 French Open | 3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 02/01/17 ATP Doha | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Novak Djokovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 09/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 02/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/09 | Nuno Borges ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-28 | L |
| 15/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 29-28 | W |
| 05/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 23/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/10 | Gauthier Onclin ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/10 | Marcos Giron ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 10/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 08/10 | Martin Landaluce ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Novak Djokovic vs Jan-Lennard Struff?
Our model gives 61% to Novak Djokovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.