Tennis · WTA Guangzhou · 30/10, 04:00
Prediction: Paula Badosa vs Harriet Dart
Team pages: Paula Badosa · Harriet Dart
Prediction summary
Winner
Paula Badosa
Harriet Dart
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Paula Badosa
5-5 (W-L)
Harriet Dart
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Paula Badosa
1–1
Harriet Dart
(2 last)
- 01 Jan2-1 19-14W
- 10 Nov0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Paula Badosa 1533 · Harriet Dart 1596
| Paula Badosa | Harriet Dart | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harriet Dart (rating 1533 vs 1596).
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.4/match).
Statistics
| Paula Badosa | Harriet Dart | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-10.1 | 14.3-10.6 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 50.4% | 56.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Paula Badosa 1 – 1 Harriet Dart (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Paula Badosa 1–1 Harriet Dart
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/23 United Cup Women | 2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 10/11/22 Billie Jean King Cup | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Sinja Kraus WTA Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/10 | Carol Young Suh Lee WTA Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/10 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Osaka · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 01/10 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Nadia Podoroska WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Mary Stoiana WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | Jazmin Ortenzi WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 17/09 | Justina Mikulskyte WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Harriet Dart
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Janice Tjen WTA Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/10 | Tatiana Prozorova WTA Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/10 | Mei Yamaguchi WTA Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/10 | Cheuk Ying Shek WTA Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/10 | Talia Gibson WTA Osaka · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 18/10 | Aoi Ito WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 17/10 | Rina Saigo WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/10 | Iva Jovic WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 01/10 | Yihan Qu WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Yexin Ma WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Paula Badosa vs Harriet Dart?
Our model gives 56% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.