Tennis · M15 Selva Gardena · 28/10, 14:30
Prediction: Luca Castagnola vs Jake Fellows
Team pages: Luca Castagnola · Jake Fellows
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castagnola
Jake Fellows
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castagnola
5-5 (W-L)
Jake Fellows
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castagnola 1519 · Jake Fellows 1578
| Luca Castagnola | Jake Fellows | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jake Fellows (rating 1519 vs 1578).
Statistics
| Luca Castagnola | Jake Fellows | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-9.9 | 12-8.7 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.5% | 73.5% |
| Break % | 46.4% | 43.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Patric Prinoth M15 Selva Gardena |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/10 | Sergio Callejon Hernando M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 15/10 | Kasra Rahmani M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/10 | Josh Manuel M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/10 | Robert Strombachs M15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/09 | Jan Werblinski M15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/09 | Fares Zakaria M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Jan Hrazdil M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 06/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Jake Fellows
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Leonardo Taddia M15 Selva Gardena |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/10 | Kyle Mckay M25 Redbridge |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Dylan Leeman M25 Redbridge |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Alec Deckers M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Rodrigo Leal M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/09 | Dino Molokova Ferreira M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/09 | Chirag Duhan M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 04/09 | Aditya Balsekar M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/09 | Giulio Perego M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Karim Ibrahim M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castagnola vs Jake Fellows?
Our model gives 51% to Luca Castagnola, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.