Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Arthur Fils
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Arthur Fils
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
6-4 (W-L)
Arthur Fils
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Michelsen
0–1
Arthur Fils
(1 last)
- 23 Oct0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1549 · Arthur Fils 1573
| Alex Michelsen | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 48.1% break avg.
- Arthur Fils dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 42% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alex Michelsen 0–1 Arthur Fils (1).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.5-13.1 | 13.4-10.7 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.9
Over 22.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 37% · 1.83
H2H · Alex Michelsen 0 – 1 Arthur Fils (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Michelsen 0–1 Arthur Fils
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/26 ATP Brussels | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/10 | David Goffin ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/10 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 06/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 05/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
Arthur Fils
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 23/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Pavel Kotov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 02/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Luca Van Assche ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Martin Damm ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils?
Our model gives 60% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.