Tennis · M25 Norman · 28/10, 16:00
Prediction: Alejandro Melero Kretzer vs Aidan Mchugh
Team pages: Alejandro Melero Kretzer · Aidan Mchugh
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Melero Kretzer
Aidan Mchugh
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Melero Kretzer
6-4 (W-L)
Aidan Mchugh
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Melero Kretzer 1518 · Aidan Mchugh 1563
| Alejandro Melero Kretzer | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mchugh (rating 1518 vs 1563).
- Note: Alejandro Melero Kretzer makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Alejandro Melero Kretzer | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-10 | 11.3-8.7 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 61.9% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 40% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Melero Kretzer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Pablo Roche Alcaya UTR Pro Norman · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Dante Teramo UTR Pro Norman · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/10 | Tomas Jirousek UTR Pro Norman · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 14/10 | Michael Lorenzetti UTR Pro Norman · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Louis Hull UTR Pro Norman · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 01/10 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez M15 Fayetteville |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Alejandro Arcila M15 Fayetteville |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 29/09 | Isac Stroemberg M15 Fayetteville |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | Nikita Belozertsev M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Frazier Rengifo M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Aidan Mchugh
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Karl Poling M25 Austin |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Martin Riu M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/09 | Samir Banerjee M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexandre Reco M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra M25 Nevers |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 16/09 | Valentin Lapalu M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/09 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Pozzuoli |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Melero Kretzer vs Aidan Mchugh?
Our model gives 71% to Aidan Mchugh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.