Tennis · Challenger Ningbo · 29/10, 04:00
Prediction: Naoya Honda vs Liam Broady
Team pages: Naoya Honda · Liam Broady
Prediction summary
Winner
Naoya Honda
Liam Broady
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Naoya Honda
5-5 (W-L)
Liam Broady
0-10 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Naoya Honda
0–1
Liam Broady
(1 last)
- 26 Mar0-2 2-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naoya Honda 1523 · Liam Broady 1437
| Naoya Honda | Liam Broady | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naoya Honda (rating 1523 vs 1437).
- Naoya Honda is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Naoya Honda 0–1 Liam Broady (1).
- Note: Liam Broady makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Naoya Honda | Liam Broady | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.6-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-12.2 | 11.2-13.7 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 75.4% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Naoya Honda 0 – 1 Liam Broady (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naoya Honda 0–1 Liam Broady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/26 Challenger Yokkaichi | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naoya Honda
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 26/10 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/10 | Ryuki Matsuda Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/10 | Kristjan Tamm Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/09 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Jesse Flores Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Hao Duan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/09 | Ryota Tanuma M25 Sapporo |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Liam Broady
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 22/10 | Akira Santillan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Dominik Palan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Roanne · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 24/08 | Marco Cecchinato US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Ozan Baris Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 21/07 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naoya Honda vs Liam Broady?
Our model gives 59% to Liam Broady, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.