Prediction: Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael Jodar
Team pages: Valentin Vacherot · Rafael Jodar
Prediction summary
Winner
Valentin Vacherot
Rafael Jodar
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Valentin Vacherot
6-4 (W-L)
Rafael Jodar
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valentin Vacherot 1511 · Rafael Jodar 1590
| Valentin Vacherot | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rafael Jodar (rating 1511 vs 1590).
Statistics
| Valentin Vacherot | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-12.9 | 13.5-9.9 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 4 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 30.3% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.2
Over 22.5: 58% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 42% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valentin Vacherot
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 12/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Sebastian Baez ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 02/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexander Blockx ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Otto Virtanen Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 17/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/10 | Casper Ruud ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 10/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Alexander Bublik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Cristian Garin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael Jodar?
Our model gives 68% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.