Prediction: Naomi Osaka vs Mia Pohankova
Team pages: Naomi Osaka · Mia Pohankova
Prediction summary
Winner
Naomi Osaka
Mia Pohankova
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Naomi Osaka
8-2 (W-L)
Mia Pohankova
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naomi Osaka 1562 · Mia Pohankova 1566
| Naomi Osaka | Mia Pohankova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 43.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Naomi Osaka | Mia Pohankova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-11.9 | 12.8-10.3 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 59.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.7
Over 21.5: 62% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 38% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Jasmine Paolini WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/10 | Karolina Muchova WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 04/10 | Sara Bejlek WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/10 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Elise Mertens US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Katerina Siniakova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Anastasia Zakharova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Mia Pohankova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Tereza Valentova WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/10 | Maria Sakkari WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Xiyu Wang WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 12/10 | Anna Bondar WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/09 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/09 | Katie Swan WTA Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 24/09 | Veronika Podrez WTA Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Francisca Jorge WTA Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/09 | Gabriela Knutson WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 18/09 | Kylie Collins WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naomi Osaka vs Mia Pohankova?
Our model gives 63% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.