Tennis · Challenger Ningbo · 28/10, 05:30
Prediction: Hiroki Moriya vs Mert Alkaya
Team pages: Hiroki Moriya · Mert Alkaya
Prediction summary
Winner
Hiroki Moriya
Mert Alkaya
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Hiroki Moriya
5-5 (W-L)
Mert Alkaya
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hiroki Moriya 1519 · Mert Alkaya 1527
| Hiroki Moriya | Mert Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Mert Alkaya dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 42.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Hiroki Moriya | Mert Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12 | 9.4-10.1 |
| Aces | 2 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 34.6% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hiroki Moriya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | James McCabe Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/10 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/10 | Taisei Ichikawa Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Keegan Smith Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Jilong Huang Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/09 | Blake Ellis Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
Mert Alkaya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Rigele Te Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/10 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 11/10 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 09/10 | Yan Cheng Chen M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Ko Suzuki M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/10 | Isaac Becroft M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Francisco Cerundolo Davis Cup |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Thiago Agustin Tirante Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Max Basing Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hiroki Moriya vs Mert Alkaya?
Our model gives 58% to Mert Alkaya, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.