Tennis · Challenger Seoul · 29/10, 03:00
Prediction: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jay Friend
Team pages: Sho Shimabukuro · Jay Friend
Prediction summary
Winner
Sho Shimabukuro
Jay Friend
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Sho Shimabukuro
3-7 (W-L)
Jay Friend
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sho Shimabukuro 1466 · Jay Friend 1587
| Sho Shimabukuro | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1466 vs 1587).
- Jay Friend dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 44.9% break avg.
- Jay Friend is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Sho Shimabukuro | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-12.4 | 13.3-11.4 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 76.4% |
| Break % | 36.6% | 44.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sho Shimabukuro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 07/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | James Watt Davis Cup |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/08 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
| 23/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/10 | Coleman Wong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/10 | James McCabe Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 20/10 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 10/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/10 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sho Shimabukuro vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 56% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.