Prediction: Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Elise Mertens
Team pages: Leylah Annie Fernandez · Elise Mertens
Prediction summary
Winner
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Elise Mertens
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Leylah Annie Fernandez
5-5 (W-L)
Elise Mertens
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Leylah Annie Fernandez
2–2
Elise Mertens
(4 last)
- 19 Oct2-1 15-14W
- 16 Feb0-2 4-12L
- 19 Sept2-0 12-7W
- 09 Feb0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1600 · Elise Mertens 1508
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leylah Annie Fernandez (rating 1600 vs 1508).
- Note: Leylah Annie Fernandez makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.3 | 11.7-11.2 |
| Aces | 3 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 50.2% | 44% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 49% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 51% · 1.80
H2H · Leylah Annie Fernandez 2 – 2 Elise Mertens (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leylah Annie Fernandez 2–2 Elise Mertens
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/26 WTA Ningbo | 2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 16/02/25 WTA Dubai | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/09/23 WTA Guadalajara | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/02/21 Australian Open Women | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Himeno Sakatsume WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/10 | Elena Rybakina WTA Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 21/10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Han Shi WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 03/10 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Elise Mertens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 13/10 | Daria Snigur WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Iga Swiatek WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/10 | Coco Gauff WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Katie Volynets WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 25/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 57% to Leylah Annie Fernandez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.