Tennis · Challenger Brest · 27/10, 11:00
Prediction: Moez Echargui vs Francesco Maestrelli
Team pages: Moez Echargui · Francesco Maestrelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Moez Echargui
Francesco Maestrelli
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Moez Echargui
6-4 (W-L)
Francesco Maestrelli
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Moez Echargui
1–0
Francesco Maestrelli
(1 last)
- 03 Aug2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moez Echargui 1541 · Francesco Maestrelli 1471
| Moez Echargui | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moez Echargui (rating 1541 vs 1471).
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 48.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Moez Echargui 1–0 Francesco Maestrelli (1).
Statistics
| Moez Echargui | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.9 | 11.8-13.1 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 65.2% |
| Break % | 41.5% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
H2H · Moez Echargui 1 – 0 Francesco Maestrelli (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moez Echargui 1–0 Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/25 Challenger Porto | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moez Echargui
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/10 | Mickael Kaouk Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Daniel Masur Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/09 | Karl Poling Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/09 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Cassis · Hard |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Borna Gojo ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/10 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/10 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/09 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 18/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 16/09 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 7-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moez Echargui vs Francesco Maestrelli?
Our model gives 54% to Moez Echargui, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.