Tennis · Challenger Brest · 30/10, 20:00
Prediction: Stefano Travaglia vs Otto Virtanen
Team pages: Stefano Travaglia · Otto Virtanen
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefano Travaglia
Otto Virtanen
Estimated games
24.8
Recent form · 10 last
Stefano Travaglia
4-6 (W-L)
Otto Virtanen
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefano Travaglia
0–1
Otto Virtanen
(1 last)
- 30 Jan0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano Travaglia 1515 · Otto Virtanen 1519
| Stefano Travaglia | Otto Virtanen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Otto Virtanen dominates on serve: 12.8 aces and 43.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Stefano Travaglia 0–1 Otto Virtanen (1).
- Note: Otto Virtanen makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Stefano Travaglia | Otto Virtanen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-13.1 | 14.1-14 |
| Aces | 8.1 | 12.8 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 35.3% | 43.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8
H2H · Stefano Travaglia 0 – 1 Otto Virtanen (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefano Travaglia 0–1 Otto Virtanen
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/26 Challenger Manama | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano Travaglia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Laslo Djere Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 16/10 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Valentin Royer Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/10 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 22/09 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 14/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Harry Wendelken US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Otto Virtanen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/10 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/10 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 14/10 | Remy Bertola Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Valentin Vacherot Davis Cup |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Lucas Catarina Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/08 | Andrey Rublev US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-31 | L |
| 26/08 | Jack Pinnington Jones US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano Travaglia vs Otto Virtanen?
Our model gives 64% to Otto Virtanen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.