Tennis · Challenger Ningbo · 27/10, 05:30
Prediction: James McCabe vs Hiroki Moriya
Team pages: James McCabe · Hiroki Moriya
Prediction summary
Winner
James McCabe
Hiroki Moriya
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
James McCabe
3-7 (W-L)
Hiroki Moriya
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
James McCabe
3–1
Hiroki Moriya
(4 last)
- 17 Nov2-0 12-7W
- 23 Feb2-1 18-11W
- 31 Jan0-2 5-12L
- 20 Feb2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · James McCabe 1412 · Hiroki Moriya 1492
| James McCabe | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hiroki Moriya (rating 1412 vs 1492).
- Hiroki Moriya is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: James McCabe 3–1 Hiroki Moriya (4).
Statistics
| James McCabe | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 11% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.9 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-14.6 | 11.6-11.6 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 2 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 28.9% | 34.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · James McCabe 3 – 1 Hiroki Moriya (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · James McCabe 3–1 Hiroki Moriya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/25 Challenger Sydney | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/02/24 ITF M25 Traralgon | 2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 31/01/24 Challenger Burnie | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/02/23 Challenger Bengaluru | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
James McCabe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 19/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Federico Cina Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Lukas Neumayer US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Noah Zamora M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/07 | Alex Bolt ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 21/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 16/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Hiroki Moriya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/10 | Taisei Ichikawa Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Keegan Smith Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Jilong Huang Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/09 | Blake Ellis Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 09/09 | Maximus Jones Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in James McCabe vs Hiroki Moriya?
Our model gives 52% to James McCabe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.