Tennis · Challenger Ningbo · 27/10, 05:30
Prediction: Yaroslav Demin vs Carl Emil Overbeck
Team pages: Yaroslav Demin · Carl Emil Overbeck
Prediction summary
Winner
Yaroslav Demin
Carl Emil Overbeck
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Yaroslav Demin
8-2 (W-L)
Carl Emil Overbeck
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yaroslav Demin 1542 · Carl Emil Overbeck 1494
| Yaroslav Demin | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yaroslav Demin (rating 1542 vs 1494).
- Yaroslav Demin dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 48.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Yaroslav Demin | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-9.7 | 10.9-10.5 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 70% |
| Break % | 48.8% | 37% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yaroslav Demin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Qian Sun Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/10 | Martin Borisiouk Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/10 | Akira Santillan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 19/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/10 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/10 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Qian Daohu |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 14/10 | Filip Peliwo M25 Qian Daohu |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/10 | Akira Santillan Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Hanyi Liu Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Carl Emil Overbeck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Ryan Peniston Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Fano |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Tobia Grandinetti M25 Fano |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/08 | Petr Nesterov M25 Gentofte |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yaroslav Demin vs Carl Emil Overbeck?
Our model gives 51% to Yaroslav Demin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.