Tennis · Challenger Seoul · 28/10, 02:00
Prediction: Zhizhen Zhang vs Rei Sakamoto
Team pages: Zhizhen Zhang · Rei Sakamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Zhizhen Zhang
Rei Sakamoto
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Zhizhen Zhang
5-5 (W-L)
Rei Sakamoto
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Zhizhen Zhang
1–0
Rei Sakamoto
(1 last)
- 14 Feb2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zhizhen Zhang 1459 · Rei Sakamoto 1545
| Zhizhen Zhang | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rei Sakamoto (rating 1459 vs 1545).
- Rei Sakamoto is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Zhizhen Zhang 1–0 Rei Sakamoto (1).
Statistics
| Zhizhen Zhang | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-12.7 | 12.4-10.5 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 75.5% |
| Break % | 28.6% | 34.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
H2H · Zhizhen Zhang 1 – 0 Rei Sakamoto (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Zhizhen Zhang 1–0 Rei Sakamoto
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Challenger Brisbane | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zhizhen Zhang
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Marin Cilic Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 21/10 | Yi Zhou Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 22/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 21/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Rei Sakamoto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 17/10 | Amir Omarkhanov ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/10 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 05/10 | Seong Chan Hong ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zhizhen Zhang vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 60% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.