Tennis · Challenger Seoul · 27/10, 07:30
Prediction: Alibek Kachmazov vs Rio Noguchi
Team pages: Alibek Kachmazov · Rio Noguchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Alibek Kachmazov
Rio Noguchi
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Alibek Kachmazov
7-3 (W-L)
Rio Noguchi
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alibek Kachmazov
1–0
Rio Noguchi
(1 last)
- 24 Apr2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alibek Kachmazov 1630 · Rio Noguchi 1459
| Alibek Kachmazov | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 27% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alibek Kachmazov (rating 1630 vs 1459).
- Alibek Kachmazov dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 41.4% break avg.
- Alibek Kachmazov is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alibek Kachmazov 1–0 Rio Noguchi (1).
Statistics
| Alibek Kachmazov | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.6 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-10.5 | 10.6-11.5 |
| Aces | 9.3 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 78.9% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Alibek Kachmazov 1 – 0 Rio Noguchi (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alibek Kachmazov 1–0 Rio Noguchi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/25 Challenger Gwangju | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alibek Kachmazov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Woobin Shin Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 25/10 | Dong Ju Kim Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 13/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 11/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 10/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/10 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Evan Zhu Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/10 | Charles Broom Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 05/10 | Grigoriy Lomakin Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/10 | Yan Lang Chen Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Rio Noguchi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 23/09 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Masamichi Imamura ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Rigele Te Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alibek Kachmazov vs Rio Noguchi?
Our model gives 71% to Alibek Kachmazov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.