Prediction: Remy Bertola vs Denis Shapovalov
Team pages: Remy Bertola · Denis Shapovalov
Prediction summary
Winner
Remy Bertola
Denis Shapovalov
Estimated games
26.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Remy Bertola
7-3 (W-L)
Denis Shapovalov
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Remy Bertola 1509 · Denis Shapovalov 1569
| Remy Bertola | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denis Shapovalov (rating 1509 vs 1569).
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 10.6 aces and 53.5% break avg.
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Remy Bertola | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.9-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-13.2 | 16.2-13.4 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 10.6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 6.3 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 76.7% |
| Break % | 32.8% | 53.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.8
Over 22.5: 75% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 25% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Remy Bertola
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Mika Brunold ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/10 | Jakub Paul ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/10 | David Goffin ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/10 | Federico Cina ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 17/10 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 14/10 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Roanne · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 29/09 | Alexandre Reco Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Davis Cup |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 27/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Remy Bertola vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model gives 68% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.