Prediction: Mika Brunold vs Nuno Borges
Team pages: Mika Brunold · Nuno Borges
Prediction summary
Winner
Mika Brunold
Nuno Borges
Estimated games
23.1Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mika Brunold
7-3 (W-L)
Nuno Borges
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mika Brunold 1584 · Nuno Borges 1511
| Mika Brunold | Nuno Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mika Brunold (rating 1584 vs 1511).
- Nuno Borges dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 43.6% break avg.
- Mika Brunold is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mika Brunold | Nuno Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 86% (7) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-11.6 | 12.3-12.9 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 77.4% |
| Break % | 43.1% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 47% · 2.00
Under 23.5: 53% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mika Brunold
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Remy Bertola ATP Basel · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/10 | Jaime Faria ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/10 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/10 | Jerome Kym Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/10 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/10 | Mathys Domenc Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Biella · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 17/09 | Francesco Forti Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/09 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Nuno Borges
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/10 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Novak Djokovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 18/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/08 | Thanasi Kokkinakis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 08/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mika Brunold vs Nuno Borges?
Our model gives 57% to Nuno Borges, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.