Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Aleksandar Kovacevic
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Estimated games
27.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
5-5 (W-L)
Aleksandar Kovacevic
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ben Shelton
3–2
Aleksandar Kovacevic
(5 last)
- 19 Nov2-1 18-13W
- 11 Nov2-0 13-9W
- 23 Jul0-2 9-13L
- 15 Jul2-0 14-11W
- 19 Jul0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1588 · Aleksandar Kovacevic 1459
| Ben Shelton | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ben Shelton (rating 1588 vs 1459).
- Ben Shelton dominates on serve: 9 aces and 42.9% break avg.
- Ben Shelton is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Ben Shelton 3–2 Aleksandar Kovacevic (5).
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.4 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.2-16.6 | 11.9-13.8 |
| Aces | 9 | 11.1 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 31.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +5.6
Over 21.5: 84% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 16% · 2.00
H2H · Ben Shelton 3 – 2 Aleksandar Kovacevic (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ben Shelton 3–2 Aleksandar Kovacevic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/22 Challenger Champaign | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 11/11/22 Challenger Knoxville | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/07/22 Challenger Indianapolis | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/07/22 Challenger Rome GA | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/07/21 Challenger Cary | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 09/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/09 | Jakub Mensik Davis Cup |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Jiri Lehecka Davis Cup |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 12/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 09/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 07/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Denis Shapovalov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 02/09 | Hubert Hurkacz US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
Aleksandar Kovacevic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Basel · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 24/10 | James Duckworth ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 07/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/09 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Zachary Svajda ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 27/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Aleksandar Kovacevic?
Our model gives 75% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.