Tennis · Challenger Ningbo · 26/10, 07:00
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Filip Peliwo
Team pages: Luca Castelnuovo · Filip Peliwo
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Filip Peliwo
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
6-4 (W-L)
Filip Peliwo
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luca Castelnuovo
0–1
Filip Peliwo
(1 last)
- 31 Aug0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1511 · Filip Peliwo 1523
| Luca Castelnuovo | Filip Peliwo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Luca Castelnuovo 0–1 Filip Peliwo (1).
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Filip Peliwo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.5 | 9.6-9 |
| Aces | 12.3 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 79.9% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 32.4% | 48.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Luca Castelnuovo 0 – 1 Filip Peliwo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luca Castelnuovo 0–1 Filip Peliwo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 Challenger Shanghai | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Yusuke Kusuhara Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/10 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/10 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/10 | Egor Pleshivtsev Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Akira Santillan Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 22/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 16/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Filip Peliwo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Saba Purtseladze Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/10 | Mikalai Haliak M15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/10 | Hao-Yu Lin M15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/10 | Xirui Han M15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/10 | Jordan Chiu M15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/10 | Yaroslav Demin M25 Qian Daohu |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/10 | Max Purcell Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Yinchuan |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Filip Peliwo?
Our model gives 64% to Luca Castelnuovo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.