Tennis · Challenger Brest · 26/10, 11:00
Prediction: Michael Geerts vs Niels McDonald
Team pages: Michael Geerts · Niels McDonald
Prediction summary
Winner
Michael Geerts
Niels McDonald
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Michael Geerts
4-6 (W-L)
Niels McDonald
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michael Geerts 1517 · Niels McDonald 1485
| Michael Geerts | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Michael Geerts makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Michael Geerts | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-11.6 | 9.3-11.3 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 68% |
| Break % | 42% | 39.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michael Geerts
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 13/10 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Catania · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Joao Domingues Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 27/09 | Vladyslav Orlov Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 19/08 | Radu Albot Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 18/08 | Billy Blaydes Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Niels McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Pierre Delage Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Jakub Paul Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 28/09 | Niels Visker Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Zaccharie Cado Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 10/08 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Jerome Kym Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michael Geerts vs Niels McDonald?
Our model gives 52% to Michael Geerts, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.