Tennis · Challenger Brest · 28/10, 10:00
Prediction: Matteo Martineau vs Otto Virtanen
Team pages: Matteo Martineau · Otto Virtanen
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Martineau
Otto Virtanen
Estimated games
25.4
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Martineau
6-4 (W-L)
Otto Virtanen
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Martineau
0–2
Otto Virtanen
(2 last)
- 11 Oct0-2 10-13L
- 23 Oct0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Martineau 1554 · Otto Virtanen 1471
| Matteo Martineau | Otto Virtanen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Martineau (rating 1554 vs 1471).
- Otto Virtanen dominates on serve: 12.4 aces and 42% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Matteo Martineau 0–2 Otto Virtanen (2).
- Note: Otto Virtanen makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Matteo Martineau | Otto Virtanen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-12.7 | 13.9-14.2 |
| Aces | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 5.8 |
| 1st serve % | 76.5% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 38.9% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4
H2H · Matteo Martineau 0 – 2 Otto Virtanen (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Martineau 0–2 Otto Virtanen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/25 Challenger Roanne | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/10/24 Challenger Brest | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Martineau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Sarreguemines |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 18/10 | Mika Brunold Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/10 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 16/10 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/10 | Etienne Donnet Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Clement Tabur Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 24/09 | Daniel Masur Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 22/09 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 21/09 | Justin Boulais Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Otto Virtanen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 14/10 | Remy Bertola Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Valentin Vacherot Davis Cup |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Lucas Catarina Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/08 | Andrey Rublev US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-31 | L |
| 26/08 | Jack Pinnington Jones US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 24/08 | Ugo Blanchet US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Martineau vs Otto Virtanen?
Our model gives 52% to Otto Virtanen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.