Prediction: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar
Team pages: Alejandro Tabilo · Rafael Jodar
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Tabilo
Rafael Jodar
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Tabilo
5-5 (W-L)
Rafael Jodar
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alejandro Tabilo
1–2
Rafael Jodar
(3 last)
- 18 Aug0-2 3-12L
- 02 Aug1-2 15-18L
- 06 Mar2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Tabilo 1480 · Rafael Jodar 1581
| Alejandro Tabilo | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rafael Jodar (rating 1480 vs 1581).
- Rafael Jodar is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Tabilo 1–2 Rafael Jodar (3).
Statistics
| Alejandro Tabilo | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.5 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-13.8 | 12.7-11.1 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 67.7% |
| Break % | 36.9% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.2
Over 21.5: 65% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 35% · 1.83
H2H · Alejandro Tabilo 1 – 2 Rafael Jodar (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alejandro Tabilo 1–2 Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/26 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/08/26 ATP Washington | 1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 06/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 03/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 30/09 | Tommy Paul ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 03/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-20 | W |
| 31/08 | Yannick Hanfmann US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 18/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 17/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/10 | Casper Ruud ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 10/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Alexander Bublik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Cristian Garin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar?
Our model gives 72% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.