Prediction: Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone
Team pages: Valentin Vacherot · Mariano Navone
Prediction summary
Winner
Valentin Vacherot
Mariano Navone
Estimated games
24.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Valentin Vacherot
6-4 (W-L)
Mariano Navone
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Valentin Vacherot
1–1
Mariano Navone
(2 last)
- 05 Aug1-2 12-13L
- 21 Mar2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valentin Vacherot 1510 · Mariano Navone 1476
| Valentin Vacherot | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Valentin Vacherot | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-12.9 | 13.6-14.5 |
| Aces | 9.9 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 75.1% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 32.1% | 33.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.1
Over 22.5: 64% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 36% · 1.90
H2H · Valentin Vacherot 1 – 1 Mariano Navone (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valentin Vacherot 1–1 Mariano Navone
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/26 ATP Montreal | 1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 21/03/26 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valentin Vacherot
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 12/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Sebastian Baez ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 02/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexander Blockx ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Otto Virtanen Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/09 | Eero Vasa Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Mariano Navone
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Matteo Berrettini US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 31/08 | Novak Djokovic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-22 | W |
| 25/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone?
Our model gives 65% to Valentin Vacherot, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.