Prediction: Novak Djokovic vs Ugo Humbert
Team pages: Novak Djokovic · Ugo Humbert
Prediction summary
Winner
Novak Djokovic
Ugo Humbert
Estimated games
27.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Novak Djokovic
5-5 (W-L)
Ugo Humbert
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Novak Djokovic
1–0
Ugo Humbert
(1 last)
- 08 Jul3-0 18-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Novak Djokovic 1525 · Ugo Humbert 1442
| Novak Djokovic | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Novak Djokovic (rating 1525 vs 1442).
- Novak Djokovic is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Novak Djokovic 1–0 Ugo Humbert (1).
- Note: Ugo Humbert makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Novak Djokovic | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.6 | 1.1-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.3-17.6 | 12.6-14.6 |
| Aces | 9.1 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 30.3% | 37.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.9
Over 22.5: 81% · 1.72
Under 22.5: 19% · 2.00
H2H · Novak Djokovic 1 – 0 Ugo Humbert (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Novak Djokovic 1–0 Ugo Humbert
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/19 Wimbledon | 3-0 | 18-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Novak Djokovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 02/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/09 | Nuno Borges ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-28 | L |
| 15/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 29-28 | W |
| 05/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
Ugo Humbert
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 09/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Zizou Bergs Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-26 | L |
| 28/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Novak Djokovic vs Ugo Humbert?
Our model gives 68% to Novak Djokovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.