Prediction: Stan Wawrinka vs Jiri Lehecka
Team pages: Stan Wawrinka · Jiri Lehecka
Prediction summary
Winner
Stan Wawrinka
Jiri Lehecka
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stan Wawrinka
5-5 (W-L)
Jiri Lehecka
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stan Wawrinka 1446 · Jiri Lehecka 1564
| Stan Wawrinka | Jiri Lehecka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jiri Lehecka (rating 1446 vs 1564).
- Jiri Lehecka is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Stan Wawrinka | Jiri Lehecka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.9 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-16.3 | 13.8-10.8 |
| Aces | 9.8 | 9.2 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 81.6% |
| Break % | 20.2% | 37.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.7
Over 22.5: 68% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 32% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stan Wawrinka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Martin Landaluce ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 18/09 | Gustavo Heide Davis Cup |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 31/08 | Matteo Berrettini US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-20 | L |
| 21/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 14/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 07/06 | Arthur Rinderknech Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Jiri Lehecka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/10 | Raphael Collignon ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 06/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 19/09 | Learner Tien Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stan Wawrinka vs Jiri Lehecka?
Our model gives 73% to Jiri Lehecka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.