Tennis · Challenger Ningbo · 27/10, 03:00
Prediction: Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou
Team pages: Elias Ymer · Yi Zhou
Prediction summary
Winner
Elias Ymer
Yi Zhou
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elias Ymer
4-6 (W-L)
Yi Zhou
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elias Ymer 1413 · Yi Zhou 1525
| Elias Ymer | Yi Zhou | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yi Zhou (rating 1413 vs 1525).
- Yi Zhou is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Elias Ymer | Yi Zhou | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.7 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-14.5 | 11.1-11.8 |
| Aces | 7.6 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 66.2% | 79.5% |
| Break % | 27.5% | 21.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elias Ymer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | James McCabe Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 13/10 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 02/10 | Federico Cina Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Yi Zhou
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Coleman Wong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/10 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 09/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 07/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 28/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou?
Our model gives 70% to Yi Zhou, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.