Tennis · Challenger Ningbo · 27/10, 03:00
Prediction: Fajing Sun vs Hayato Matsuoka
Team pages: Fajing Sun · Hayato Matsuoka
Prediction summary
Winner
Fajing Sun
Hayato Matsuoka
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Fajing Sun
5-5 (W-L)
Hayato Matsuoka
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Fajing Sun
2–1
Hayato Matsuoka
(3 last)
- 14 Aug0-2 10-14L
- 06 Jan2-1 14-10W
- 31 Oct2-1 15-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fajing Sun 1484 · Hayato Matsuoka 1494
| Fajing Sun | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Fajing Sun 2–1 Hayato Matsuoka (3).
Statistics
| Fajing Sun | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12.5 | 11.4-11.3 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 33.6% | 57.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Fajing Sun 2 – 1 Hayato Matsuoka (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fajing Sun 2–1 Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/26 Challenger Astana | 0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 06/01/26 Challenger Nonthaburi | 2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 31/10/25 M25 Qian Daohu | 2-1 | 15-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fajing Sun
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Keegan Smith Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 20/10 | Qian Sun Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Jie Cui Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Bernard Tomic ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/09 | Matthew Dellavedova ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Hayato Matsuoka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Yibing Wu Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/10 | James McCabe Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/10 | Qian Sun Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/10 | Yibing Wu Asian Games |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Asian Games |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Kairan Thompson Asian Games |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Arthur Weber ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fajing Sun vs Hayato Matsuoka?
Our model gives 55% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.