Tennis · ATP Vienna MD · 28/10, 11:00

Prediction: Luz/Matos vs Harrison/Skupski

Team pages: Luz/Matos · Harrison/Skupski

Prediction summary

Winner

38% 62%

Luz/Matos Harrison/Skupski

Estimated games

24.5

Recent form · 10 last

Luz/Matos 7-3 (W-L)

WWWWWWLLWL

Harrison/Skupski 8-2 (W-L)

LWWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Luz/Matos 1–4 Harrison/Skupski (5 last)

19 Aug2-1 19-15W
20 May1-2 12-20L
11 May0-2 8-13L
10 Mar0-2 7-12L
14 Jan0-2 10-13L

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Luz/Matos 1530 · Harrison/Skupski 1627

	Luz/Matos	Harrison/Skupski
Our model	36%	64%
Market	39%	61%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harrison/Skupski (rating 1530 vs 1627).
Harrison/Skupski dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 42.3% break avg.
Head-to-head: Luz/Matos 1–4 Harrison/Skupski (5).

Statistics

	Luz/Matos	Harrison/Skupski
Win %	60%	80%
Win % · Hard	56% (9)	80% (10)
Sets (G-P)	1.4-1	1.7-0.4
Games (G-P)	15.1-13.7	12.8-10
Aces	2.7	6.1
Double faults	1.5	3.1
1st serve %	76.3%	82.9%
Break %	37.1%	42.3%

Estimated total games (ours) 24.5

H2H · Luz/Matos 1 – 4 Harrison/Skupski (5)

Odds Bet365

12.38

21.53

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	2
16:52 +55’	2.38	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Luz/Matos 1–4 Harrison/Skupski

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
19/08/26 ATP Cincinnati MD	2-1	19-15	W
20/05/26 ATP Hamburg MD	1-2	12-20	L
11/05/26 ATP Rome MD	0-2	8-13	L
10/03/26 ATP Indian Wells MD	0-2	7-12	L
14/01/26 ATP Adelaide MD	0-2	10-13	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Luz/Matos

WLLWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
21/10	Cerundolo/Michelsen ATP Brussels MD · Hard	0-2	8-13	L
20/10	Arends/Johnson ATP Brussels MD · Hard	2-0	13-9	W
10/10	Cabral/Tracy ATP Shanghai MD · Hard	1-2	25-28	L
01/10	Cash/Erler ATP Beijing MD · Hard	0-2	12-14	L
19/09	Paul/Stricker Davis Cup	2-0	13-8	W
04/09	Brandon Carpico/Filin US Open MD · Hard	1-2	17-18	L
23/08	Frantzen/Haase ATP Cincinnati MD · Hard	2-1	19-17	W
22/08	Nys/Roger-Vasselin ATP Cincinnati MD · Hard	2-1	18-12	W
21/08	Bolelli/Vavassori ATP Cincinnati MD · Hard	2-0	13-9	W
20/08	Melo/Zverev ATP Cincinnati MD · Hard	2-0	13-9	W

Harrison/Skupski

WWWWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
15/10	Schnaitter/Wallner ATP Shanghai MD · Hard	0-2	9-13	L
12/10	Nys/Roger-Vasselin ATP Shanghai MD · Hard	2-0	14-11	W
09/10	Arneodo/Gonzalez ATP Shanghai MD · Hard	2-0	13-10	W
12/09	Krawietz/Puetz US Open MD · Hard	2-0	13-10	W
10/09	Heliovaara/Patten US Open MD · Hard	2-0	13-8	W
10/09	Bolelli/Vavassori US Open MD · Hard	2-0	12-5	W
08/09	Schnaitter/Wallner US Open MD · Hard	2-0	13-9	W
07/09	Choinski/Donski US Open MD · Hard	2-0	13-9	W
05/09	Reymond/Sanchez US Open MD · Hard	2-0	13-6	W
19/08	Luz/Matos ATP Cincinnati MD · Hard	1-2	15-19	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Luz/Matos vs Harrison/Skupski?

Our model gives 62% to Harrison/Skupski, using surface Elo on hard.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.