Tennis · Challenger Seoul · 27/10, 02:00
Prediction: August Holmgren vs Jay Friend
Team pages: August Holmgren · Jay Friend
Prediction summary
Winner
August Holmgren
Jay Friend
Estimated games
24
Recent form · 10 last
August Holmgren
5-5 (W-L)
Jay Friend
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · August Holmgren 1428 · Jay Friend 1566
| August Holmgren | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1428 vs 1566).
- Jay Friend dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 41.6% break avg.
- Jay Friend is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| August Holmgren | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-13.5 | 13.3-11.3 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 77.8% |
| Break % | 39.9% | 41.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
August Holmgren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Luca Nardi Challenger Olbia · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Coleman Wong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/10 | James McCabe Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 20/10 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 10/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/10 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in August Holmgren vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 63% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.