Tennis · Challenger Seoul · 27/10, 02:00
Prediction: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jan Kumstat
Team pages: Sho Shimabukuro · Jan Kumstat
Prediction summary
Winner
Sho Shimabukuro
Jan Kumstat
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sho Shimabukuro
2-8 (W-L)
Jan Kumstat
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sho Shimabukuro 1425 · Jan Kumstat 1521
| Sho Shimabukuro | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jan Kumstat (rating 1425 vs 1521).
- Jan Kumstat is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Sho Shimabukuro | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 13% (8) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.7 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-13.2 | 12.5-10.6 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 31.6% | 37.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sho Shimabukuro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 07/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | James Watt Davis Cup |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/08 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
| 23/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Jan Kumstat
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Michael Mmoh ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 15/10 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 31/08 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 21/08 | Filip Cristian Jianu Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/08 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sho Shimabukuro vs Jan Kumstat?
Our model gives 54% to Jan Kumstat, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.