Tennis · Challenger Ningbo · 25/10, 09:30
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara
Team pages: Luca Castelnuovo · Yusuke Kusuhara
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Yusuke Kusuhara
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
5-5 (W-L)
Yusuke Kusuhara
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1501 · Yusuke Kusuhara 1475
| Luca Castelnuovo | Yusuke Kusuhara | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Yusuke Kusuhara | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-12.3 | 10.4-10.6 |
| Aces | 12.3 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 80% | 68% |
| Break % | 33.5% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/10 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/10 | Egor Pleshivtsev Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Akira Santillan Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 22/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 16/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Yusuke Kusuhara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Takuya Kumasaka M15 Tanagura |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 22/10 | Makoto Ochi M15 Tanagura |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/10 | Kodai Abe M15 Tanagura |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 02/09 | Sora Fukuda M25 Urayasu |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 08/07 | Ryotaro Taguchi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Riku Takahata M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Jake Delaney M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Shu Matsuoka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/06 | Youssef Kadiri Hassani M15 Harmon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara?
Our model gives 64% to Luca Castelnuovo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.