Tennis · Challenger Ningbo · 25/10, 06:00
Prediction: Ryuki Matsuda vs Naoya Honda
Team pages: Ryuki Matsuda · Naoya Honda
Prediction summary
Winner
Ryuki Matsuda
Naoya Honda
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Ryuki Matsuda
7-3 (W-L)
Naoya Honda
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryuki Matsuda 1544 · Naoya Honda 1442
| Ryuki Matsuda | Naoya Honda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryuki Matsuda (rating 1544 vs 1442).
- Ryuki Matsuda is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Ryuki Matsuda | Naoya Honda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.8 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-8.8 | 9.9-11.3 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63.9% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 40.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryuki Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Digvijay Pratap Singh M25 Mumbai · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/10 | Pawit Sornlaksup M25 Mumbai · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 21/10 | Mukund Sasikumar M25 Mumbai · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Sergey Betov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/10 | Nino Ehrenschneider M15 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 02/10 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 01/10 | Reiya Komagata M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Zichen Shao M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/09 | Moise Kouame Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Naoya Honda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/10 | Kristjan Tamm Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/09 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Jesse Flores Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Hao Duan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/09 | Ryota Tanuma M25 Sapporo |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 03/09 | Naoki Nakagawa M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Seiya Nakanishi M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 12/08 | Nikita Filin M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryuki Matsuda vs Naoya Honda?
Our model gives 56% to Ryuki Matsuda, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.