Prediction: Kimberly Birrell vs Daria Kasatkina
Team pages: Kimberly Birrell · Daria Kasatkina
Prediction summary
Winner
Kimberly Birrell
Daria Kasatkina
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kimberly Birrell
7-3 (W-L)
Daria Kasatkina
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Kimberly Birrell
1–0
Daria Kasatkina
(1 last)
- 31 Dec2-1 18-17W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kimberly Birrell 1563 · Daria Kasatkina 1457
| Kimberly Birrell | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kimberly Birrell (rating 1563 vs 1457).
- Kimberly Birrell is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Kimberly Birrell 1–0 Daria Kasatkina (1).
- Note: Kimberly Birrell makes many double faults (4.3/match).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Kimberly Birrell | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-10.2 | 10.6-12.7 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 6.3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.6% | 55.8% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.8
Over 21.5: 56% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 44% · 1.83
H2H · Kimberly Birrell 1 – 0 Daria Kasatkina (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kimberly Birrell 1–0 Daria Kasatkina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/18 WTA Brisbane | 2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kimberly Birrell
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Aoi Ito WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Katie Volynets WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 03/10 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Aoi Ito WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/09 | Maya Joint WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Anna Bondar WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Katie Volynets WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Yexin Ma WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Ekaterina Alexandrova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Daria Kasatkina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Yexin Ma WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 10/10 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kimberly Birrell vs Daria Kasatkina?
Our model gives 59% to Kimberly Birrell, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.