Prediction: Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini
Team pages: Naomi Osaka · Jasmine Paolini
Prediction summary
Winner
Naomi Osaka
Jasmine Paolini
Estimated games
21.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Naomi Osaka
8-2 (W-L)
Jasmine Paolini
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Naomi Osaka
0–1
Jasmine Paolini
(1 last)
- 24 Mar1-2 14-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naomi Osaka 1567 · Jasmine Paolini 1504
| Naomi Osaka | Jasmine Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi Osaka (rating 1567 vs 1504).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 41.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Naomi Osaka 0–1 Jasmine Paolini (1).
Statistics
| Naomi Osaka | Jasmine Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-11.3 | 9.6-10.1 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 1 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 54.7% |
| Break % | 41.2% | 60.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 51% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 49% · 1.83
H2H · Naomi Osaka 0 – 1 Jasmine Paolini (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naomi Osaka 0–1 Jasmine Paolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/25 WTA Miami | 1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naomi Osaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Karolina Muchova WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 04/10 | Sara Bejlek WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/10 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Elise Mertens US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Katerina Siniakova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Anastasia Zakharova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Jasmine Paolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Iva Jovic WTA Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/10 | Sonay Kartal WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Sara Bejlek WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Daria Snigur WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/09 | Elina Svitolina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Qinwen Zheng Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Lucrezia Stefanini US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini?
Our model gives 64% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.