Prediction: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Team pages: Ann Li · Ekaterina Alexandrova
Prediction summary
Winner
Ann Li
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ann Li
5-5 (W-L)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ann Li
1–3
Ekaterina Alexandrova
(4 last)
- 23 Jun1-2 9-18L
- 19 May2-1 16-13W
- 08 Oct0-2 8-13L
- 02 Apr0-2 3-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ann Li 1561 · Ekaterina Alexandrova 1533
| Ann Li | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Ann Li 1–3 Ekaterina Alexandrova (4).
- Note: Ekaterina Alexandrova makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Ann Li | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-10.8 | 11.6-9.8 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 38.6% | 47.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 49% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 51% · 1.83
H2H · Ann Li 1 – 3 Ekaterina Alexandrova (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ann Li 1–3 Ekaterina Alexandrova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/26 WTA Bad Homburg | 1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 19/05/26 WTA Strasbourg | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 08/10/25 WTA Wuhan | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/04/25 WTA Charleston | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ann Li
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Ashlyn Krueger WTA Osaka · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 23/10 | Lilli Tagger WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 22/10 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/10 | Emerson Jones WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 16/10 | Iga Swiatek WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Janice Tjen WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/10 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 07/10 | Elina Svitolina WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Belinda Bencic WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/10 | Ashlyn Krueger WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 20/10 | Hanyu Guo WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 08/10 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Linda Noskova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Diana Shnaider WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 02/10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Marta Kostyuk US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Kimberly Birrell US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/08 | McCartney Kessler US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova?
Our model gives 50% to Ann Li, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.