Prediction: Moyuka Uchijima vs Elise Mertens
Team pages: Moyuka Uchijima · Elise Mertens
Prediction summary
Winner
Moyuka Uchijima
Elise Mertens
Estimated games
22.4Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Moyuka Uchijima
4-6 (W-L)
Elise Mertens
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Moyuka Uchijima
0–2
Elise Mertens
(2 last)
- 22 Jan0-2 4-12L
- 07 Oct1-2 10-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moyuka Uchijima 1454 · Elise Mertens 1513
| Moyuka Uchijima | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elise Mertens (rating 1454 vs 1513).
- Head-to-head: Moyuka Uchijima 0–2 Elise Mertens (2).
- Note: Moyuka Uchijima makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Moyuka Uchijima | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.9 | 11.8-11.4 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 39.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.9
Over 19.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 31% · 1.83
H2H · Moyuka Uchijima 0 – 2 Elise Mertens (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moyuka Uchijima 0–2 Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/26 Australian Open Women | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/10/22 WTA Monastir | 1-2 | 10-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moyuka Uchijima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Mary Stoiana WTA Osaka · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/10 | Ena Shibahara WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 06/10 | Zhuoxuan Bai WTA Suzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 29/09 | Yeon Woo Ku Asian Games |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 21/09 | Lanlana Tararudee WTA Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Lucie Havlickova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/08 | Polona Hercog US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/08 | Harriet Dart WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Cristina Bucsa WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Elise Mertens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 13/10 | Daria Snigur WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Iga Swiatek WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/10 | Coco Gauff WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Katie Volynets WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 25/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Maria Timofeeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moyuka Uchijima vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 70% to Elise Mertens, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.