Tennis · WTA Guangzhou · 27/10, 05:00
Prediction: Lilli Tagger vs Venus Williams
Team pages: Lilli Tagger · Venus Williams
Prediction summary
Winner
Lilli Tagger
Venus Williams
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Lilli Tagger
5-5 (W-L)
Venus Williams
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lilli Tagger 1489 · Venus Williams 1371
| Lilli Tagger | Venus Williams | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lilli Tagger (rating 1489 vs 1371).
- Lilli Tagger is in better form: 40% recent wins.
- Note: Venus Williams makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Lilli Tagger | Venus Williams | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 0% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 0% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.3-2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.1 | 8.3-14 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 63.4% |
| Break % | 47.9% | 29.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lilli Tagger
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Ann Li WTA Osaka · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 21/10 | Tereza Valentova WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/10 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 30/09 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Amanda Anisimova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 31/08 | Tamara Korpatsch US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Robin Montgomery WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Venus Williams
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Sofia Kenin US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Irina-Camelia Begu WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/04 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/03 | Francesca Jones WTA Miami · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 05/03 | Diane Parry WTA Indian Wells · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/02 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Austin · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/01 | Olga Danilovic Australian Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lilli Tagger vs Venus Williams?
Our model gives 80% to Lilli Tagger, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.