Tennis · WTA Tokyo · 25/10, 02:30
Prediction: Heather Watson vs Alycia Parks
Team pages: Heather Watson · Alycia Parks
Prediction summary
Winner
Heather Watson
Alycia Parks
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Heather Watson
4-6 (W-L)
Alycia Parks
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heather Watson 1498 · Alycia Parks 1443
| Heather Watson | Alycia Parks | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heather Watson (rating 1498 vs 1443).
- Note: Heather Watson makes many double faults (6.6/match).
- Note: Alycia Parks makes many double faults (9.8/match).
Statistics
| Heather Watson | Alycia Parks | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.4 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-14.3 | 8.9-12.7 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 6.6 | 9.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 44.5% | 50.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.7
Over 21.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 38% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heather Watson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 17/10 | Emerson Jones WTA Osaka · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Harriet Dart US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Angela Fita Boluda US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 24/08 | Claire Liu US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 24/06 | Tatiana Prozorova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Alycia Parks
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Ena Shibahara WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 20/10 | Sara Bejlek WTA Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 18/10 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Aoi Ito WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Lin Zhu WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Mei Yamaguchi WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/09 | Sara Bejlek WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Varvara Lepchenko WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 30/08 | Taylah Preston US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Heather Watson vs Alycia Parks?
Our model gives 54% to Heather Watson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.