Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Team pages: Sebastian Baez · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
5-5 (W-L)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sebastian Baez
1–0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
(1 last)
- 20 Jan3-2 26-24W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1470 · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 1399
| Sebastian Baez | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Baez (rating 1470 vs 1399).
- Head-to-head: Sebastian Baez 1–0 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (1).
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 0% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 0.9-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-12.7 | 12.6-15.2 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 16.2 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 29.1% | 25.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 25.5
Over 25.5: 50% · 1.80
Under 25.5: 50% · 1.90
H2H · Sebastian Baez 1 – 0 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sebastian Baez 1–0 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/26 Australian Open | 3-2 | 26-24 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Marcos Giron ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 23/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Remy Bertola ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 13/10 | Etienne Donnet Challenger Roanne · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Jurij Rodionov US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-20 | L |
| 23/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Trevor Svajda ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 30/06 | Yannick Hanfmann Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 16/06 | Corentin Moutet ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 14/06 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/06 | Johannus Monday ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard?
Our model gives 55% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.