Prediction: Ludmilla Samsonova vs Heather Watson
Team pages: Ludmilla Samsonova · Heather Watson
Prediction summary
Winner
Ludmilla Samsonova
Heather Watson
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ludmilla Samsonova
6-4 (W-L)
Heather Watson
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ludmilla Samsonova 1493 · Heather Watson 1485
| Ludmilla Samsonova | Heather Watson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Ludmilla Samsonova makes many double faults (5/match).
- Note: Heather Watson makes many double faults (6.2/match).
Statistics
| Ludmilla Samsonova | Heather Watson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.4 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-13.3 | 12.6-13 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 5 | 6.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63.1% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 45.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.6
Over 19.5: 79% · 1.72
Under 19.5: 21% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Lilli Tagger WTA Osaka · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Elina Svitolina WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 13/10 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Karolina Muchova WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 19/09 | Peyton Stearns WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 17/09 | Kayla Day WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 15/09 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/08 | Maya Joint US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
Heather Watson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Emerson Jones WTA Osaka · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Harriet Dart US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Angela Fita Boluda US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 24/08 | Claire Liu US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 24/06 | Tatiana Prozorova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Mayar Sherif Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ludmilla Samsonova vs Heather Watson?
Our model gives 69% to Ludmilla Samsonova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.