Prediction: Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina
Team pages: Yexin Ma · Daria Kasatkina
Prediction summary
Winner
Yexin Ma
Daria Kasatkina
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Yexin Ma
5-5 (W-L)
Daria Kasatkina
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yexin Ma 1485 · Daria Kasatkina 1445
| Yexin Ma | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yexin Ma (rating 1485 vs 1445).
- Note: Yexin Ma makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Yexin Ma | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 0.9-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-11.3 | 10.9-14 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 6.8 |
| 1st serve % | 60.6% | 53.2% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +4.5
Over 18.5: 78% · 1.80
Under 18.5: 22% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yexin Ma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Suzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/09 | Harriet Dart WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Yufei Ren WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Kimberly Birrell WTA Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Emerson Jones WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 20/09 | Eunhye Lee WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/09 | Carol Zhao WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/09 | Tahlia Kokkinis W50 Guiyang |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Kristiana Sidorova W50 Guiyang |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Daria Kasatkina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 10/10 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina?
Our model gives 65% to Daria Kasatkina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.