Tennis · WTA Ningbo · 23/10, 13:00
Prediction: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa
Team pages: Elena Rybakina · Katarzyna Kawa
Prediction summary
Winner
Elena Rybakina
Katarzyna Kawa
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Elena Rybakina
8-2 (W-L)
Katarzyna Kawa
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elena Rybakina 1607 · Katarzyna Kawa 1504
| Elena Rybakina | Katarzyna Kawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 93% | 7% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elena Rybakina (rating 1607 vs 1504).
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 7 aces and 45.2% break avg.
- Elena Rybakina is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Katarzyna Kawa makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Elena Rybakina | Katarzyna Kawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.5 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-9.6 | 12-13.1 |
| Aces | 7 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 6.3 |
| 1st serve % | 79.5% | 61% |
| Break % | 45.2% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elena Rybakina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Alina Charaeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 12/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 11/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 09/09 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Thea Frodin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Katarzyna Kawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Belinda Bencic WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Daria Snigur WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 30/09 | Daria Snigur WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 29/09 | Valeria Savinykh WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Rinko Matsuda WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 14/09 | Maria Garcia Cid WTA Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Eva Bennemann WTA Antalya · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Ekaterine Gorgodze US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Eva Lys WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 05/08 | Justina Mikulskyte WTA Warsaw · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa?
Our model gives 80% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.