Tennis · WTA Ningbo · 23/10, 07:00
Prediction: Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Team pages: Leylah Annie Fernandez · Ekaterina Alexandrova
Prediction summary
Winner
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Leylah Annie Fernandez
6-4 (W-L)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Leylah Annie Fernandez
2–3
Ekaterina Alexandrova
(5 last)
- 12 Oct2-1 15-13W
- 06 Jan1-2 12-15L
- 29 Aug1-2 17-18L
- 15 Aug0-2 9-13L
- 03 Jan2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1595 · Ekaterina Alexandrova 1536
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leylah Annie Fernandez (rating 1595 vs 1536).
- Head-to-head: Leylah Annie Fernandez 2–3 Ekaterina Alexandrova (5).
- Note: Leylah Annie Fernandez makes many double faults (5.8/match).
- Note: Ekaterina Alexandrova makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.8 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-10.9 | 12.2-9.9 |
| Aces | 3 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 67.5% | 71% |
| Break % | 60.3% | 47.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Leylah Annie Fernandez 2 – 3 Ekaterina Alexandrova (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leylah Annie Fernandez 2–3 Ekaterina Alexandrova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/26 WTA Wuhan | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 06/01/25 WTA Adelaide | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 29/08/23 US Open Women | 1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/08/22 WTA Cincinnati | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/01/22 WTA Adelaide | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Han Shi WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 03/10 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Talia Gibson WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 26/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Alycia Parks WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Hanyu Guo WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 08/10 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Linda Noskova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Diana Shnaider WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 02/10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Marta Kostyuk US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Kimberly Birrell US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/08 | McCartney Kessler US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Clara Tauson WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova?
Our model gives 54% to Leylah Annie Fernandez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.