Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · 23/10, 05:00
Prediction: Minori Natsuka vs Shizuka Sakurada
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Prediction summary
Winner
Minori Natsuka
Shizuka Sakurada
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Minori Natsuka
1-9 (W-L)
Shizuka Sakurada
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Minori Natsuka
0–1
Shizuka Sakurada
(1 last)
- 07 Mar0-2 7-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Minori Natsuka 1439 · Shizuka Sakurada 1553
| Minori Natsuka | Shizuka Sakurada | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shizuka Sakurada (rating 1439 vs 1553).
- Shizuka Sakurada is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Minori Natsuka 0–1 Shizuka Sakurada (1).
- Note: Minori Natsuka makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Minori Natsuka | Shizuka Sakurada | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.5-12.3 | 11.7-9.2 |
| Aces | 0 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 49.9% | 53.6% |
| Break % | 74.6% | 54% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
H2H · Minori Natsuka 0 – 1 Shizuka Sakurada (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Minori Natsuka 0–1 Shizuka Sakurada
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Minori Natsuka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Neon Kinoshita UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 22/10 | Kokoa Nakao UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/10 | Haruka Nishimura UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Natsuko Saegusa UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/10 | Himari Sato UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Mutsumi Uemura W35 Fukuoka · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 14/03 | Natsumi Shioya UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 12/03 | Sayuri Hata UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 11/03 | Azusa Ishii UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/03 | Azuna Ichioka UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Shizuka Sakurada
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Haruka Nishimura UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 22/10 | Rio Otaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/10 | Sara Yoshida UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Ayane Takagi UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/06 | Ran Inaba UTR Pro Kakogawa Women · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/06 | Nanami Goto UTR Pro Kakogawa Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Kokoro Ishikawa UTR Pro Kakogawa Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Miyu Kato UTR Pro Kakogawa Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06 | Lucia Gale UTR Pro Kakogawa Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 07/03 | Minori Natsuka UTR Pro Kawaguchi Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Minori Natsuka vs Shizuka Sakurada?
Our model gives 75% to Shizuka Sakurada, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.