Tennis · WTA Ningbo · 21/10, 13:00
Prediction: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Marta Kostyuk
Team pages: Ekaterina Alexandrova · Marta Kostyuk
Prediction summary
Winner
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Marta Kostyuk
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Ekaterina Alexandrova
5-5 (W-L)
Marta Kostyuk
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ekaterina Alexandrova
2–1
Marta Kostyuk
(3 last)
- 04 Sept0-2 5-12L
- 12 Sept2-1 19-18W
- 10 May2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ekaterina Alexandrova 1545 · Marta Kostyuk 1535
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Ekaterina Alexandrova 2–1 Marta Kostyuk (3).
- Note: Ekaterina Alexandrova makes many double faults (5.2/match).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-9.9 | 12.7-11.1 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 58.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Ekaterina Alexandrova 2 – 1 Marta Kostyuk (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ekaterina Alexandrova 2–1 Marta Kostyuk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/26 US Open Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/09/22 WTA Portoroz | 2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 10/05/21 WTA Rome | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Hanyu Guo WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 08/10 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Linda Noskova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Diana Shnaider WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 02/10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Marta Kostyuk US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Kimberly Birrell US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/08 | McCartney Kessler US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Clara Tauson WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Marta Kostyuk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Maria Sakkari WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 18/09 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Ekaterina Alexandrova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Sloane Stephens US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Marta Kostyuk?
Our model gives 52% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.